Are those loudly objecting to tax increases under the countywide reassessment merely expressing sticker shock upon learning the real cost to them of government in Nassau County?
And will they eventually come around and accept their fair share after eight years of underpaying their taxes?
Or, now that property owners know what their fair share really is, will they oppose the cost of government in Nassau?
And, if so, what are they are prepared to do about it?
The answer to those questions – and how government responds – could determine the future of Nassau County.
Those facing tax increases have a couple of options.
They could decide that living in Nassau County is no longer worth the cost and move someplace with lower taxes.
Empty nesters, those whose children have grown up and moved away, would seem a likely group to take that route. Although grown children are not moving away as quickly as they once did.
Those facing tax increases could also decide to stay – and seek reductions in the cost and size of government in Nassau County.
Adam Haber, Hempstead’s deputy chief of staff for economic development and government efficiency and a columnist for Blank Slate Media, gave a presentation to East Hills trustees last week on ways to generate revenue and cut expenses.
Haber’s recommendations, some of which he also presents in a column this week, are based on a painless formula – running government smarter and more efficiently. In most cases, the only reason not to follow Haber’s recommendations is politics, not a small obstacle in Nassau County.
Another route is cuts and consolidation.
The largest target for both cuts and consolidation would be school districts. Why? They represent about two-thirds of the average property tax bill.
Schools districts on the North Shore are among the tops in the state, if not the country, and have served as a magnet for families. The districts are often a major reason people move into a community and stay.
But the school districts also cost taxpayers lots of money with several spending more than $30,000 per student. And there are many of them in Nassau County, 56 to be exact, serving 210,000 students. That’s 56 school superintendents and 56 school boards.
New York City has one school district and one school superintendent for its 1.1 million students.
Nassau County residents may not want to follow New York City’s example including the cost per student.
But then they will need to accept the costs.
School budget votes in the spring will be a good barometer of their willingness to accept the costs.
Another target for savings is all the other governments.
Nassau has a county government, three town governments, two cities, 64 incorporated villages and 240 fire, sanitation, water, library, parks, parking, police school and sewer districts.
Are all of them necessary?
Up to now, the answer has been yes.
But concierge service from your local government has a cost.
Taxpayers’ commitment to this level of service will be further tested by perhaps a bigger issue than reassessment: the $1.9 trillion tax cut passed by Republicans in Congress and signed into law by Donald Trump.
The cost of the tax cut would actually have been higher to the federal government than $1.9 trillion had it not included a cap of $10,000 on deductions for state and local taxes on your federal income tax returns. This has come to be known as the SALT cap.
Not coincidentally those most affected by the tax cap are Democratic-leaning states that spend a relatively high amount of money on state and local services such as New York and California. Nassau County is a poster boy for the kinds of places targeted by the tax plan.
For those who itemize their deductions, the tax bill means their tax bills will go up.
In 2014, 77 percent of tax filers with an income between $100,000 and $200,000 chose to itemize, with an average of $25,598 in deductions claimed. In Nassau County, nearly 50 percent of all taxpayers itemize their deductions.
The number of taxpayers itemizing their deductions is expected to drop under the new tax law. And economic analysts said the bill could also be a significant drag on home prices.
The federal tax bill will have benefits for some on the North Shore that could leave them even if not better off.
Some 85 percent of the tax cut legislation goes to corporations and the wealthiest Americans. And the North Shore has more than its fair share of corporate executives and very high-income individuals. At least some of whom will be seeing an increase in the assessed value of their home and their local tax bills.
Taxpayers not among the highest earners will also see some benefit to their taxes – at least for the next year or so until those tax benefits expire. Unless Congress steps in.
The economy of Nassau County remains strong with unemployment at a perhaps historic low. Housing values have seen large increases in recent years. And school districts are among the best money can buy.
But the county is facing some significant questions. How they are answered will determine Nassau’s future.
