Just days after U.S. Rep. Steve Israel said the non-stop fundraising cycle of federal politics was the basis for his decision not to seek re-election, some Long Island politicians started working to fund campaigns to replace him.
Coupled with state Assemblywoman Michelle Schimel’s separate decision not to pursue re-election, Israel’s surprise Jan. 5 announcement set off a flurry of political activity from which 17 potential candidates eyeing the Melville Democrat’s seat have emerged.
State Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) was the first to create a congressional campaign committee and will leave the state Senate at the end of his term, an aide said.
And North Hempstead town Councilwoman Anna Kaplan became the first Democrat to officially enter the race this week.
As the jockeying continues, questions remain as to who will represent the North Shore in both Albany and Washington, and how the three races might shift the balance of power in New York.
The candidates
Few potential candidates have emerged for the state offices.
Adam Haber, a Democrat who opposed Republican Edward Mangano for county executive in 2011 and ran a self-funded state Senate campaign against Martins in the 2014, told Blank Slate Media he’s strongly considering running for Martins’ seat again.
And Democrat Jim Gounaris, a trustee and former president of the Herricks school board, said he is considering a campaign to replace Schimel.
Nassau Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said North Hempstead Public Safety Commissioner Andrew DeMartin, a former Manhasset-Lakeville fire commissioner, had also expressed interest in the Assembly seat.
Jacobs said he’s also been in touch with Haber and thinks he’s a strong potential candidate because he “comes to the table with some level of his own resources, … an understanding of the issues, which is definitely an asset, and campaign experience.”
While he declined to mention specific names, Nassau GOP spokesman Michael Watt said the party has “a stable of people” interested in state offices.
The field is not so thin in the forming race for Israel’s congressional seat representing New York’s Third District, which stretches from Whitestone, Queens to Kings Park and extends as far south as Farmingdale.
Eleven potential Democratic candidates have emerged, but only Kaplan has filed Federal Election Commission documents declaring her candidacy.
Kaplan, whom Israel swore into her second term on the Town Board earlier this month, said she would be “proud to follow in (Israel’s) footsteps.”
Both their districts cover Great Neck, where Kaplan lives and Israel keeps an office.
“I am running for Congress because that is the position where I believe I can be the most effective advocate for the issues that matter to Long Island and Queens families,” said Kaplan, who also represents Manhasset, Roslyn and North Hills, in an email.
According to a Nassau County Democratic source who asked not to be named, Israel encouraged Kaplan to run as he prepared to announce he’d leave Congress.
The two had been in Washington together for a White House Hanukkah party last month, the Nassau Democrat said, where Israel introduced Kaplan to other party figures, including Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-New Mexico).
A source close to Israel, though, disputed the claim that he told Kaplan to run, adding that Israel has no plans to endorse a candidate but reserves the right to back one in the future.
A source affiliated with Kaplan’s campaign said it expects a strong initial financial showing and will be organizing Kaplan’s “grassroots” support network.
Other Nassau Democrats in the mix are Nassau County Interim Finance Authority Chair Jon Kaiman, former County Executive Thomas Suozzi, state Assemblyman Charles Lavine (D-Glen Cove), Great Neck public relations executive and Democratic National Committee member Robert Zimmerman, lawyer Brad Gerstman and businessman Todd Richman.
Suffolk County Democrats have named Nassau county legislators Steve Stern and William Spencer, former Legislator Jon Cooper and Huntingtown Town Supervisor Frank Petrone as potential candidates.
None have filed FEC documents forming a campaign committee.
About half as many Republican congressional candidates have surfaced.
Jack Martins filed FEC papers to create a campaign committee two days after Israel’s announcement.
The Old Westbury resident and former Mineola mayor had been considering a congressional run for several months and began discussing it more seriously after Israel’s announcement, campaign strategist E. O’Brien Murray said.
“When you look at the field as it comes together, the voters that know Jack Martins have supported him in the past overwhelmingly,” he said.
Martins and his team have begun fundraising and so far, “the outpouring of support has been tremendous, said Murray, who ran Martins’ 2014 state Senate campaign.
Huntington state Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci also set up a campaign committee last week and launched a campaign website Tuesday.
Northport state Assemblyman Andrew Raia, Suffolk Legislator Robert Trotta and Huntington town Councilman Eugene Cook are also in the mix, but none have made FEC filings.
Amidst the “horse trading,” as his campaign announcement called it, is Republican David “Bull” Gurfein, a retired Marine who lives in Manhasset.
One of the Republican National Campaign Committee’s promising “Young Gun” candidates, he launched a congressional campaign committee in September and has raised about $250,000 in campaign funds, he said.
Gurfein has never run for public office before, but is the only candidate on either side with federal policy experience as a congressional liaison for NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and the U.S. Special Operations Command.
He said he’s a political outsider aiming to “make a difference in the world” from Capitol Hill, as opposed to the many “opportunists” eyeing Israel’s seat.
“Our constituents will have to decide — do you want a leader who’s passionate or somebody else who’s just looking at a way to get a new job or a pay raise or to try and enhance their political career?” Gurfein said.
Democrats are trying to determine how many of the congressional candidates are serious and whether the party will back one or let a June 28 primary run its course, Jacobs said.
Jacobs met Saturday with Suffolk and Queens party heads Richard Schaeffer and Joe Crowley to lay out an “inclusive” process, and the leaders will hold talks with interested candidates Jan. 20 to likely winnow the field, he said.
“My first objective in finding a candidate is finding somebody who’s gonna win the general,” Jacobs said. “Secondarily, I want to navigate to a process where there might not be a primary.”
A serious candidate would have to raise between $3 million and $5 million in the first part of this year to sustain a campaign, Jacobs said, in addition to having a strong grasp on the issues.
He said the party is also communicating with Israel, has relationships with several potential candidates, to make sure he’s comfortable with the candidate it backs.
Nassau Republicans are “exploring all our options” and are communicating with neighboring county parties, Watt said, adding that Chairman Joe Mondello has a strong relationship with Suffolk GOP head John LaValle.
“It’s important that everybody knows what everybody else is doing, and that’s the best way to hold onto the seat,” Watt said.
Political implications
Democrats are confident Schimel’s seat will stay Democratic, but Watt said the fact that a Republican candidate wouldn’t have to face an incumbent creates a chance the GOP could take it.
That wouldn’t much affect the Assembly’s balance of power, as Democrats hold a wide majority there. But it would make Long Island’s Assembly delegation redder.
Republicans currently hold 13 of the Island’s 22 seats, and could also pick up Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky’s (D-Long Beach) if he wins the upcoming special election to replace Dean Skelos, the former Rockville Centre senator convicted on federal corruption charges in November.
“We are obviously firm believers that enough voters are concerned about … the issues that hit home to the average Long Island household that the candidate we put forward is going to put forth the best solutions to the challenges the electorate has,” Watt said.
The same principle holds for the Democrats looking to take Martins’ Senate seat, a race both parties say will be tight but winnable.
Haber said he thinks a Democrat could replace Martins in a presidential election year, which prove fruitful in terms of Democratic turnout.
A Democrat taking Martins’ seat would be the sole Democratic member of Long Island’s nine-senator cohort, if the other eight don’t change hands.
But a GOP loss in the race to replace Skelos could lead to a shift in the Senate majority, Jacobs said, which could increase pressure on senators Carl Marcellino (R-Oyster Bay) and Kemp Hannon (R-Garden City) to leave after their current terms.
“It makes Nassau County all the more important, because so much is in play and at stake here in Nassau County,” he said.
Any talk of Marcellino and Hannon leaving is just speculation, Watt said; neither has discussed it with the GOP.
The Republican party “approaches every race to win” and is confident it will keep Martins’ seat and maintain the Senate majority, Watt said.
“We understand it’s not gonna be an easy campaign, but to think anything beyond that would be self-defeating,” he said.
Reach reporter Noah Manskar by e-mail at nmanskar@theislandnow.com or by phone at 516.307.1045 x204. Also follow us on Twitter @noahmanskar and Facebook at facebook.com/theislandnow.
