“$2B Cost Seen For 3rd Track” by Joe Nikic in the Dec. 2 edition including release of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority/Long Island Rail Road Main Line Expansion Project, previously known as Main Line third track, draft environmental impact statement still leaves many unanswered questions.
Both Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority/Long Island Rail Road claiming that they can fast track Long Island Rail Road Main Line third track project and begin construction in 2017 continues to be wishful thinking.
From $600 million twenty years ago, over the past two years the estimated cost has grown from $1 to $1.5 and now $2 billion.
I wrote two years ago that the cost would be closer to $2.2 billion or more.
My skills as cost estimator for proposed transportation projects are more realistic than those of the MTA, LIRR and consultant engineering staff hired for project budgeting, development and scooping.
There is no preliminary or final design and engineering efforts up to 30 percent necessary to validate any actual construction costs.
They will need to be refined as the project progresses beyond the planning and environmental phases into real and final design efforts.
Value engineering, which is a process used to reduce costs, will be needed during the final design phase.
Unfortunately, history has shown that estimated costs for construction usually trend upwards as projects mature advance during final design.
Progression of final design refines the detailed scope of work necessary to support construction.
The anticipated final potential cost will never be known until completion.
Costs will be further refined by award of construction contracts followed by any unforeseen site conditions and change orders to the base contracts during the course of construction.
Even $2 billion may be insufficient.
It could easily cost $700 million more than the old $1.5 billion estimate, when you add the cost, up to $100 million each, for either elevating or sinking roadways at 7 crossings — three in New Hyde Park, two in Mineola and two in Westbury — within the existing right of way.
There is only $7 million to support planning, preliminary design and engineering along with environmental work approved in the 2015- 2019 MTA five-year capital program.
Cuomo’s belief that $2 billion more can be found to amend actual construction and crossing elimination funding for Main Line third track project into the existing 2015-2019 MTA five=year capital program is pure fantasy.
Cuomo first has to come up with $7.3 billion of his promised $8.3 billion to pay for existing shortfalls in this plan which is still outstanding.
Cuomo must also find $6 billion more to meet his promised contribution toward the $24 billion Amtrak Gateway Tunnel — a new connection for Amtrak and New Jersey Transit across the Hudson River to access Penn Station.
The list goes on and on for Cuomo’s unfunded transportation commitments over the past two years which total $100 billion.
Don’t be surprised if more than $2 billion is needed to support full property acquisition of four businesses, 10 partial acquisitions, final design and engineering, third party construction and construction management oversight.
There is also the need for contingency funding — usually from five percent to 10 percent of the overall total project cost to deal with bids that come in above the engineers estimates, along with change orders to construction, construction management and other contracts.
Based upon my review of the project, you are now looking at a minimum potential project cost of $2.2 billion.
These funds may have to be spread out between the 2020-2024 and 2025-2029 future five year capital programs.
Cuomo admitted that by reducing the amount of private property acquisition, virtually all construction will take place along the existing right-of-way.
He went on to say that this will result in increasing construction costs.
That has now proven to be true. Cuomo has committed that 100 percent of work would be performed on the existing right-of-way.
When you combine this with elimination of seven grade crossing, clearly overall project costs are only going to grow even more.
This is an incredibly complex project to perform 100 percent of the work within two active tracks.
There are 194 weekday and 152 weekend trains serving riders on the Huntington/Port Jefferson, Oyster Bay, Ronkonkoma and Babylon to Speonk branches.
This does not include additional freight trains and movements of passenger trains not in service.
Completion of double tracking on the Ronkokoma line with introduction of 30 minute off peak service by 2018 will add two dozen or more trains each day operating on the Main Line.
Construction has to proceed in parallel with the MTA/LIRR having to maintain existing passenger and freight service.
It is the equivalent of performing heart surgery while the patient is running a 26 mile marathon.
No one really knows today what the final project cost will be to cover costs of construction or the time needed to complete all work within the existing right of way.
Besides relocating two existing tracks on portions of the Main Line to make room for construction a new third track, you have to deal with noise abatement and sound barriers along with additional safety improvements at grade crossings including elevating or sinking tracks at seven grade crossings.
Don’t forget LIRR force account support to provide flagging protection.
This is necessary to afford third party contractors who perform construction safe access within an active right of way corridor.
Imagine how many times per hour they will have to stop work when a train passes by?
A significant portion of construction work may have to take place evenings, overnight and on weekends when there is less activity on the Main Line.
Each grade crossing elimination may require numerous weekend track outages resulting in full suspension of Main Line service.
There may be a need for 24/7 shuttle bus service between Jamaica and Mineola or Hicksville.
Costs for substitute bus service could easily run into the millions over the project construction duration.
The MTA or LIRR have yet to release a detailed project budget to share with anyone.
A real project budget would include the estimated costs for each project component.
This information is needed if the MTA/LIRR wish to build credibility with commuters, residents, taxpayers, transit advocates, elected officials and the media.
The proposed project implementation schedule may be overly optimistic based upon delays in obtaining funding, unforeseen site conditions, inclement weather, insufficient track outages and unavailable force account support for construction contractors.
The current proposed project budget continues to be little more than a number written on the back of an envelope.
These concerns and questions need to be dealt with at the upcoming January 2017 Main Line third track environmental impact statement public hearings.
Larry Penner
Great Neck
Larry Penner is a transportation historian and advocate who previously worked 31 years for the United States Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration Region 2 NY Office.
Readers Write: State understates cost of 3rd track
