Regardless if Phase One of Second Avenue Subway opens by the end of December or some time in early 2017 — it is still a gloss only one quarter full.
Consider there is only $1.035 billion in funding contained within the Metropolitan Transportation Authority $27 billion five-year 2015-2019 capital program to support preliminary work for phase two north from 96th Street on to 125th Street.
There is still the need of $4.965 billion for funding actual construction of phase two.
These dollars will have to come from the next MTA Five Year 2020-2024 capital program.
The MTA is counting on the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration New Starts program to provide $500 million or more in additional funding.
Add $15 billion more down the road for phases three and four to complete the full length of Second Avenue Subway south to Hanover Square.
The MTA hopes using “Fast Track” to allow construction of Second Avenue subway phase two to start in 2019.
Don’t count on it.
The MTA will enter this project into the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration “New Starts” program.
How many years will it take to complete the NEPA environmental review process?
Which neighborhood will want to host any entrance for both a tunnel boring machine and removal of construction debris?
Construction of the new Second Avenue Subway 125th Street Station will be underneath both the Metro North Park Avenue Viaduct and New York City Transit Lexington Avenue subway.
Will there be any required speed restrictions for Metro-North Railroad or New York City Transit Lexington Avenue Subway trains during construction?
Will there be the need for any service outages? Will any Metro North or NYCT force account support be required during construction?
They will want to protect both their operations and physical structures from vibrations and other potential adverse impacts.
Will phase two incorporate the stretch of tunnel previously built in the 1970’s between 99th Street and 105th Street?
Based upon the master grant agreement between the MTA and U.S. DOT FTA, if these portions of work do not go into transit use, Uncle Sam has the legal right to ask for its money back.
NYCT since the 1970s has had to maintain and protect this unopened tunnel. The federal government has considered this work part of an active ongoing project.
If the MTA does not incorporate utilization of this tunnel, Washington may ask for reimbursement. The MTA could owe up to several hundred million based upon current fair market value.
The goal would be to obtain a Full Funding Grant Agreement between the U.S. DOT FTA and MTA for fully funding the project.
MTA is in competition between its own operating agencies and against other transit agencies around the nation.
There are 98 other Senators and 434 Congress members supporting their own New Starts projects.
Why would USDOT FTA approve any FFGA without a guarantee from the MTA that matching local share or $4.965 billion balance of funding to complete the project is secure and in place.
The only proof is inclusion of this project within the next 2020-2024 Five Year Capital Program approved by both the MTA and Albany Capital Program Review Board.
Previous MTA five year capital plans have been approved one or more years late. Based on past history, the next MTA five year capital plan for 2020 to 2024 may not be approved until 2021.
The MTA would not risk advertising multi billion construction project bids without secure funding being in place.
Any procurement process from advertising to bid award could easily take six months to a year. Just issuing contract addendum in response to potential contract bidders questions to such a complex project requires several months.
Actual contracts for full construction could end up being awarded in 2022.
If phase one takes 11 years to complete from the original 2007 contract award to 2017, phase two might not be completed until 2030 or later.
There are conflicting growing competing priorities and limited available funding. Consider what the 2020-2024 MTA five year capital program has to deal with besides finding $4.965 billion for Second Avenue Subway phase two.
The original proposed 2010 – 2014 MTA $29 billion five year capital plan was cut to $24.2 billion before being approved.
The original proposed 2015 – 2019 MTA $32 billion five year capital plan in Sept. 2014 was rejected by the New York State MTA capital program review board.
In October 2015, a revised $27 billion 2015 – 2019 MTA five-year capital plan was approved by the MTA Board, New York State MTA capital program review board.
A majority of the $8 billion in deferred capital improvements cut from these two plans still need funding.
Don’t forget the billions needed for routine state of good repair projects and programs for each operating agency.
Regardless of the funding source, Second Avenue subway phase two will end up competing against many worthy projects in the next MTA five year 2020-2024 capital plan.
Going back decades, the city, state and MTA have consistently kicked the can down the road every five years.
As a result, coming to a consensus on what to fund in the next five year capital program plan will become even more difficult.
Second Avenue Subway phase two will be the largest single project proposed for funding in the next five year capital plan. It could potentially consume almost 20 percent of the total program!
Larry Penner
Larry Penner is a transportation historian and advocate who previously worked 31 years for the United States Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration Region 2 NY Office.
Readers Write: Second Ave. subway funding falls short
