Gov. Andrew Cuomo continues to be overly optimistic concerning building a train to the plane for LaGuardia Airport.
In 2016, New York State awarded a $14.6 million contract to Parsons Brinckenhoff for design and engineering. In 2017, the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey has added $55 million bringing the total amount of their approved project funding to $70 million leaving a $930 million shortfall.
This funding is just-see money which will finance the start of a very long journey.
Success for this project is dependent upon the Port Authority and MTA working well together. Seventeen years after 9/11, the Cortland Street World Trade Center No. 1 IRT subway station is still many months away from being back in service.
If there are no new delays, perhaps the station will reopen by December 2018. The Port Authority & MTA fought for years over budget, funding sources, scope and schedule. Construction for the MTA portion of the project started in 2015.
In early 2014, Gov. Cuomo said the estimated cost for construction of the LaGuardia Air Train would be $450 million.
At the time, this was based upon a planning feasibility study.
Over four years have passed since Cuomo announced this project with little progress to date. There are no environmental documents or any preliminary design and engineering efforts necessary to validate any actual construction costs.
The environmental review process will be further delayed.
More time will be needed to look at newly proposed concepts of building the Air Train over the Flushing Bay Promande or Flushing Bay.
Building the Air Train over one of these two concepts versus the original option of using the Grand Central Parkway median could easily add several hundred million to overall construction costs.
I previously wrote that the anticipated final potential cost for La Guardia Airtrain could end up several hundred million dollars above Cuomo’s estimated figure of $450 million.
I also predicted that the promised completion date by 2019 was unrealistic. Both have proven to be true. The Port Authority 2017 – 2026 capital budget plan lists this project at $1 billion.
Costs will be further refined as the project progresses thru the environmental review process, preliminary and final design, award of construction contracts followed by change orders to the base contracts during construction.
Cuomo’s belief that this will provide a “one-seat ride” for those traveling to and from LaGuardia Airport isn’t born out by the facts.
There will be significant conflicts when the LaGuardia Airtrain is built and open for service with connections to both the Mets Willets Point subway and LIRR stations.
Why would any LaGuardia Airport-bound travelers with luggage attempt to squeeze in on already packed a.m. and p.m. rush hour subway and LIRR trains?
Cuomo apparently never considered how this issue will be resolved when contemplating this project.
Cuomo in 2014 promised that the LaGuardia Airtrain would be up and running within 5 years by 2019. Now he has said this will occur by 2021.
Even this date appears unrealistic. Completion of the environmental review, preliminary and final design and engineering may require another three years.
You will be lucky if construction begins in 2022 and completed by end of 2025.
Most Nassau and Suffolk County residents will never take the LIRR to LaGuardia via Jamaica and Woodside Stations.
Only Port Washington branch riders have a straight connection.
For everyone else, first, you would have to either drive, have someone else drop you off or leave your car at an LIRR station for several days or take a taxi.
Most LIRR station commuter parking lots are designed for same day usage and not overnight multiple-day storage.
Who would want to leave your car in an unattended lot overnight over several days with no security?
For those traveling from diesel territory branches (including those commuting from stations east of Huntington to Port Jefferson, east of Mineola to Oyster Bay, east of Babylon to Speonk or Montauk and east of Ronkonkoma to Greenport), you would probably have to first change at either Huntington, Babylon, Mineola or Ronkokoma.
Next, change at either Jamaica and or Woodside to board a Port Washington bound train to Mets Willets Point.
There is no room to run additional trains in or out of Penn Station during either a.m. or p.m. rush hours via the East River tunnels with connections via the Port Washington LIRR branch to any LaGuardia Air Train. This conflicts with Cuomo’s promise to have the MTA LIRR introduce a new frequent service between Penn Station and Mets Willets Point LIRR Station.
No mention of a similar service from Grand Central Terminal once LIRR East Side Access is achieved in December 2023 or later.
Three of four East River tunnels running inbound during a.m. and outbound p.m. rush hours have very tight spacing between trains. One tunnel is shared by the LIRR, New Jersey Transit and Amtrak for reverse train movements with equally tight spacing during rush hours.
There is no platform capacity at Penn Station to accommodate any additional trains during rush hour.
Penn Station is currently operating at 100 percent capacity during both a.m. and p.m. rush hours. If one of the four tunnels is temporarily out of service, the result is numerous delays and cancellation of trains.
Completion of Communication Based Train Control followed by the implementation for the Flushing to Hudson Yards No. 7 subway line may only result in increasing the number of trains per hour from 30 to 32 in each direction during rush hour.
After that, NYC Transit no longer has any other opportunity for increasing rush hour capacity.
A true one seat ride could be accomplished by simply extending the N & W subway lines from their current terminus at Astoria/Ditmars Blvd to LaGuardia Airport. This previously died due to local community opposition.
To build a train to the plane from Mets – Willets #7 subway and LIRR station to LaGuardia Airport within five years for $1 billion is a planners dream.
In reality, it will be a nightmare for both taxpayers and riders.
You can count on cost overruns in the hundreds of millions and multiyear delays in construction before reaching beneficial use.
Larry Penner
Great Neck
(Larry Penner is a transportation historian and advocate who previously worked 31 years for the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration Region 2 NY Office).
