It is wishful thinking on the part of Gov. Andrew Cuomo that construction can start on the MTA Long Island Rail Road main line third track in 2017.
It could easily cost $700 million more than the $1.5 billion to cover costs of either elevating or sinking roadways at seven grade crossings (three in New Hyde Park, two in Mineola and two in Westbury) within the existing right of way.
There is only $7 million to support planning, preliminary design and engineering along with environmental work.
This was included in the recently approved 2015-2019 MTA Five Year Capital Program by Albany Capital Program Review Board.
Cuomo’s belief that $1.5 billion plus $700 million more can be found to amend actual construction funding for main line third track project into the existing 2015-2019 MTA Five-Year Capital Program is pure fantasy.
Cuomo first has to come up with $7.3 billion of his promised $8.3 billion to pay for existing shortfalls in this plan, which is still outstanding. Cuomo must also find $6 billion more to meet his promised contribution toward the $24 billion Amtrak Gateway Tunnel (a new connection for Amtrak and New Jersey Transit across the Hudson River to access Penn Station).
The Draft Scoping Document for the project including the planned Environmental Impact Statement is in compliance with the New York State Environmental Quality Review Act.
There was no reference to the National Environmental Protection Act.
Without following NEPA, the MTA LIRR would probably forfeit any opportunity to access U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration funding to support the main line third track.
U.S. DOT FTA provides over $1.2 billion in yearly formula grant assistance to the MTA.
The LIRR annual share averages $150 million, not counting East Side Access to Grand Central Terminal.
This is supplemented by New Starts and other competitive discretionary dollars which over any Five-Year Capital Plan can average one billion or more.
Why would the MTA LIRR not want to preserve the option to apply for U.S. DOT FTA capital funding in the future for this project.
Based upon past history, the next MTA Five-Year Capital Plan may not be approved by New York State Capital Program Review Board until 2021.
Without approved funding for construction, the LIRR could not initiate and complete a procurement process for award of construction contracts until 2022.
Let us assume the MTA/LIRR awards a contract and issues a notice to proceed in 2022.
The winning “design/build” construction contractor would begin mobilization of forces and starts work in 2022. Even in the best case scenario put forward by MTA/LIRR, work would not be completed until five years later in 2027.
It is far more realistic based upon such a complex project that work may not be finished until 2028 or 2029.
In reality, the potential project cost of $2.2 billion for main line third track may have to be spread out using local funds between the 2020-2024 and 2025-2029 future Five-Year MTA Capital Programs.
Larry Penner
Great Neck
(Larry Penner is a transportation historian and advocate who previously worked 31 years for the US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration Region 2 NY Office.).
Readers Write: 3rd track work in 2017 unrealistic
