Any discussions about Republicans regaining control New York City Hall may be wishful thinking. It is a battle between Staten Island-Brooklyn state Assembly member Nicole Malliatokis (David) and incumbent Mayor Bill de Blasio (Goliath).
As of April, 2017 there are 4.496,115 active registered voters in NYC.
This includes 3,100,356 Democrats; 470,185 Republicans; 780,226 Blanks (no declared party affiliation); 103.585 Independence; 17,992 Conservative; 13,253 Working Family; 3,602 Green; 1,414 Womens Equality; 183 Reform and 1,226 other registered voters.
Any Republican running for Mayor of NYC in 2017 would need both name recognition and $30 million dollars to compensate for this overwhelming 6-to-1 Democrat to Republican deficit.
A media buy of several million per week over the next seven weeks, several dozen direct mail pieces, phone banks and a door to door vote pull operation would be required to remain competitive.
All of the above will have to be supplemented by millions more from independent Political Action Committees.
Malliatokis currently lacks the financial resources to pay for this. This is needed to offset DeBlasio’s potential millions in independent expenditures from various municipal labor unions and other pay-for-play special interest groups.
They have all benefited during his first term in office and are looking for four more years of the same.
Incumbent Mayor de Blasio starts off the general election contest as the odds on favorite to win.
This is despite GOP candidate Nicole Malliatokis’ excellent knowledge and ability to articulate her views. She can only get her message out by relying on speaking events and free press with a very limited campaign budget.
The last Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg barely won a third term in 2009 against Democrat Bill Thompson.
He spent over $160 million to overcome a citywide five-to-one Democrat/Republican voter registration advantage. Over the past eight years, this enrollment gap has grown to a six to one Democrat/Republican registration advantage.
The previous losing 2013 GOP Mayoral candidate Joe Lhota clearly has a fraction of the financial means of Bloomberg making his race impossible from the start.
Democrats will rally around their party’s nominee for mayor in 2017, like they did in 2013. They want a friend in City Hall when running for re-election in 2018.
Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, state Assembly Speaker Carl Hastie, state Senate Minority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, state Senate Democratic Independent caucus leader Jeffrey Klein along with senators Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand will all be on board.
Despite their ongoing feud, even Gov. Andrew Cuomo will support de Blasio for a second term.
They will be joined by numerous other Democratic Party public officials including 59 state Assembly members, 22 state senators and 12 Congressmembers from NYC as well as virtually every municipal labor union.
All will provide endorsements, financial support including either hosting fund raisers or making direct campaign contributions. They will collectively supply thousands of volunteers for phone banks and door to door get out the vote operations.
In the 1990’s, Republican Mayor Rudy Guiliani had a record seven Republican out of 51 NYC Councilmembers.
They included Mike Abel, Alfonse Stabile and Thomas Olgibene of Queens, Charles Millard and Andrew Eristoff of Manhattan, Martin Golden of Brooklyn and Fred Cerillo of Staten Island.
They developed a working coalition with then Democratic NYC Council Speaker Peter Vallone Sr. and more moderate Democratic councilmembers.
Mayor Bloomberg had only three Republican out of 51 NYC Councilmembers.
Current NYC Council Speaker Melissa Mark – Vivervito and virtually all of today’s generation of Democratic councilmembers are far more liberal and anti-business.
There are only a handful of GOP elected officials to assist Mayoral candidate Malliatokis . Virtually all are from her home base of Staten Island. This predominantly middle class borough still remains competitive for Republicans despite a 2 to 1 Democrat to Republican voter registration advantage.
Staten Island Democrats tend to be more moderate than those from the rest of NYC and are more likely to cross party lines to vote Republican.
GOP Congressmember Dan Donovan (11th CD), state senators Andrew Lanza (24th SD) and Marty Golden (22nd SD) along with Assemblymember Ron Castorina (62nd AD) represent either Staten Island and/or Bay Ridge, Brooklyn.
There is also Staten Island Borough President James Oddo along with NYC Council Minority leader Eric Ulrich from Queens as well as Staten Island councilmembers Steve Matteo and Joseph Boreilli from Staten Island.
The rest of NYC is solidly represented by Democrats
Malliatokis may be able to increase the number of voters who identify with their Cuban, Greek or Italian (who are unhappy about the Christopher Columbus statue controversy) heritage to vote for her on either the Republican or Conservative Party ballot.
Crossover Democrats, who voted for former Presidents Reagan and Bush Senior in the 1980s, former Sen. D’Amato in 1980-1998; former Gov. Pataki in 1994-2002, former Mayor Giuliani in the 1990s along with Mayor Bloomberg in 2001, 2005 and 2009 continue to move out of town, retire out of state or succumb to old age.
There has been no successful GOP outreach to Caribbean, Hispanic, Asian or other new immigrants along with middle class African Americans.
Outside of Staten Island, Bay Ridge Brooklyn and several orthodox Jewish neighborhoods, there are few pockets of Trump voters to count on.
Once the GOP loses any incumbent, they are rarely able to reclaim the district. Bloomberg will go down in the history books as the last Big Apple Republican Mayor prior to his change in party enrollment to blank several years ago.
Perhaps 2017 GOP Mayoral candidate Malliatokis will provide coattails to reclaim the Bay Ridge Brooklyn City Council seat for Republicans.
This seat open seat being vacated by Vincent Gentile represented the last GOP NYC Councilmember elected from Kings County.
It was held by GOP Council Minority leader Angelo Arculeo who served from 1962-1982 and Martin Golden who won the seat back one last time serving from 1998-2002.
Larry Penner
Great Neck
(Larry Penner is a long time historian of NYC municipal government)
