There is no doubt that if you are a true blue registered Democrat; this is not a good time to be a member of the party of Roosevelt, Kennedy, Truman, Clinton and Biden.
On Election Night, no matter where you looked around the country, the Democrats were taking it on the chin. Whether it was Virginia or Suffolk County, the news was bad. If you follow the so-called election experts, they predict that 2022 will be just as bad for the Democratic Party.
I don’t have a crystal ball that would help me predict the future, but I have lived through enough election cycles to know that unpredictable events can happen and what looks like a sure thing can turn out to be the exact opposite.
There are many events bubbling below the surface and any one of them could change the destiny of us brooding partisans. At this very moment, the U.S. Supreme Court is about to hear arguments on a case that could change the entire trajectory of next November.
The case to be argued on December 1 is Dobbs v. Jackson Health Organization. It involves a Mississippi law that bans all abortions after 15 weeks, except in the case of medical emergencies. Medical emergencies do not include rape and incest unless the Mississippi law said so, but it didn’t.
This case will decide the future of Roe v Wade, which has been the law of the land for over 50 years. Cases heard in December are usually decided by June 2022. Let’s assume that this very conservative court decides to scrap Roe v. Wade in the middle of an election year.
Keep in mind that all polls point to the fact that around 75 per cent of the country do not want Roe v. Wade overturned. They favor limits on abortion but do not favor a complete ban.
Many members of the current court have been itching to end all abortions for years and this is now their chance to make judicial history. If the court moves in that direction, it will send shock waves through the Republican Party and upset many a planned election night celebration.
The next event that could roil the waters is the fate of former President Donald Trump. Trump is unquestionably the leader of the Republican Party, thanks to his bullying of candidates at almost all levels.
Republicans are willing to say and do whatever the ex-leader says they should. There is a sitting grand jury in New York that has been weighing a variety of charges against Mr. Trump and the Trump organization.
The newly elected Manhattan District Attorney is anxious to carry on the work of his predecessor. What happens to the party’s leader if he is indicted for tax fraud and a variety of other charges? Indictments are not convictions, but they sure can create a lot of headaches.
While New York’s jurors sift through evidence, another jury sits in Georgia evaluating whether Mr. Trump has committed election tampering. His now-famous call to the Georgia Secretary of State asking him to find “11,500 votes” has become common knowledge and election experts will tell you it is a dangerous request especially from a president.
One of the grand juries weighing the fate of Mr. Trump and his family may return a verdict that will further tar the Trump image at a time when he is actively involved in numerous campaigns.
Not to be forgotten is the January 6 Congressional investigation. It is expected that they will present their report to the nation in mid-April or May.
Their report could reveal that the ex-president played a direct role in the riot at the Congress and that too has criminal implications. All of these scenarios may never happen or at least a few will be in the headlines.
For now, this is political guesswork, but it is the unexpected that can change the direction of any election, so stay tuned.